Is war coming? "The point is that Putin shouldn't be the one deciding about our fears or emigration plans."

Marta Byczkowska-Nowak: Why do we change the subject when asked, "Is war coming?"? The geopolitical situation is dangerous, why is it so difficult for us to talk about it?

Agnieszka Lichnerowicz: I think many of us haven't mourned the promise of the end of history. For two or three decades, we lived through a beautiful geopolitical moment for our region, and we were led to believe that this could always be the case. That we no longer need to worry about global instability, that we are safe, we will be wealthier, and we can focus only on what we want: family, career, self-fulfilment, and that's all we'll ever do.

But criminal Russian imperialism has resurfaced, and the threat around us has grown, making it very difficult to come to terms with. Moreover, this new situation naturally evokes fear and anxiety, which are linked to twentieth-century traumas.

The first instinct may be denial, and that's understandable. However, it's important not to get stuck in that moment – experts argue that the cure for fear is knowledge, agency, and action. Instead of avoiding thinking about challenges and threats, ignoring them, or psychologically escaping them in various ways, it's better to face them head-on. And take action.

Modernizing the military isn't enough; we need to increase state preparedness, civil defense, and societal resilience. Unfortunately, we think about the latter the least, and we could observe how the best-prepared countries do it. The better armed and socially prepared we are, the more we will deter Russia from attacking us.

But to take action, you have to believe it's worth it, and even necessary. Meanwhile, a very common reaction to attempts to broach the subject is "someone's scaring us again, there won't be any war." In your book, you talk to twelve experts on this topic. Is war coming?

Conversations with experts indicate that even if a full-scale attack on Poland were to occur, it wouldn't happen overnight. Preparations for such aggression are lengthy, and that's not the scenario we fear most at this point—though, of course, we can't rule it out. The geopolitical situation surrounding Poland has changed dramatically over the past decade, meaning we are already at risk. We are subjected to other types of attacks, below the armed threshold of war, for which we are often inadequately prepared.

Not everyone has yet realized that we live in an era of so-called polycrises. Besides armed conflict, we will be increasingly vulnerable to various other crises—such as fires and floods—related to the destabilization of the climate system, while the economic system is rushing from crisis to crisis. Therefore, in the security community, the concept of resilience is a popular, perhaps even fashionable, concept. Developing the state and society so that they can withstand various types of attacks, including, of course, the most serious, full-scale one. The second element of resilience is the ability to adapt to new post-crisis conditions—to a changing world.

There is a narrative that the war is already here, because contrary to visions well-rooted in the collective imagination, modern war is not necessarily about "Russian tanks" and the apocalypse.

We, living in this part of Europe, carry within us the trauma of the tragedies of the "bloodlands," to use Professor Tymothy Snyder's term. We associate war with apocalypse. And occupation. Yet this is not the only possible scenario, and at this point it's not even the most probable (though unfortunately, it cannot be ruled out in the future; apocalypse has occurred in Ukraine and many other places around the world). Smaller attacks and provocations may occur as Russia tests our reactions and defense capabilities.

Will local governments be able to react if some little green men appear somewhere? Or how will we react if a rocket hits a military base in a Polish city? And so on. Besides, even during a full-scale attack in Ukraine, for example in Lviv or Kyiv, people go to work, school, cinemas, or restaurants; life goes on. Resilience is crucial in such conditions.

In Poland, however, we are currently primarily talking about so-called hybrid warfare, meaning below the armed threshold, sabotage, cyber, and cognitive activities aimed at deepening existing crises and war fatigue. It's hard to shake the impression that Russia is achieving its long-term goal in this latter regard. From the outset, we knew that Russia was counting on war fatigue in Ukraine and its supporting West. The conflict in Ukraine is also a war of fatigue; of course, it will be decided primarily on the frontlines, but the decisive factor in defeat or victory will also be the resilience of the economy and society, as well as our European and Polish support. Research shows that despite a theoretical understanding of this mechanism, the better Ukraine defends itself, the more it bleeds Russia, and support for Ukraine in Poland is declining.